Seasonal Analysis Model

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About

Some products may display seasonality – that is, predictable patterns which repeat themselves every year (for example, retail sales tend to be higher nearer to the end of the year). In this model, an average of the product's value at each time of the year (averaged over multiple years) is shown, alongside the trend in a particular (usually the current) year. Furthermore, the maximum and minimum value for each time of the year are shown, to reveal any seasonal dependence in the product's volatility and/or estimate the significance of seasonal patterns.

This model can be used to:

Detect and examine seasonal patterns in a product's performance,
Predict movements in the near future using historical seasonal data,
Compare the product's current performance against historical benchmarks at the same time in previous years.

Guide

	Image/Description
Duration	Select the start and end year for which the product's seasonality is analysed.
Primary Year	The product's performance in the primary year will be displayed alongside its seasonality data.
Product	Input product of interest under 'Product'. Input 'Contract Month' and 'Contract Year' for product of interest.
Comments	The inserted comments will be displayed at the bottom of the application. This can be useful for documentation purposes or for settings description.

Input

	Description	Type	Example
Start Year	Start year for inclusion into seasonal analysis.	Year	2015
End Year	End year for inclusion into seasonal analysis.	Year	2019
Primary Year	Primary year to be examined against the product's seasonality data.	Year	2019
Product	Product name.	Product (Selection)	Sugar #11
	Contract month.	Month	July
	Contract year.	Year	2019
Comments	Useful for documentation purposes or for settings description.	Text	-

Output

Name	Description	Type
Primary Time-series	Product time-series in primary year.	Plot
Seasonality data	Displays the minimum and maximum price on each calendar date for the years selected for analysis, as well as a time-series of the average price and current price on each date of different years.	Plot

Example

Sugar is usually cheaper in summer (due to higher supply), and seems to be underperforming in 2019.

Functionality

Displayed below are some noteworthy user interactions you can find on this application.

Name	Description	Interaction
Tooltip lines (Vertical)	Show cursor position along the X-axis ('Date'). Circles appear on the various time-series, and a tooltip displays all the price values (minimum, maximum, average and current).	Plot Element
Legend, Bounds	The minimum and maximum of the product's value on the latest date in previous years are shown in the legend at the top of the Y-axis on the left.	Plot Element

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