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Yield curve inversion is often regarded by investors as a leading indicator of likely recessions. In this model, the likelihood of a U.S. recession is estimated by the U.S. yield curve spread (difference in yields between the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note and the U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill) using a probit model. Drawing on data of past probabilities that are based on the U.S. yield curve spread, each yield curve spread has fitted a probability of predicting a recession in the next 12 months. Users can view historical data of U.S. yield curve spreads and their corresponding predicted likelihood of recession, each as a time-series. 



To access the quantitative model/report, click on 'Dashboard' from the navigation sidebar on the left. 


Select the model/report from the drop-down list and click 'Create'. Click on the 'Settings' button (gear icon) at the top right corner of the model to set up your model/report.

Sharing Model/Report/Dashboard

To share the model with your group members, click on the "Share" button next to the Title of the model followed by the email address of the group members you want to share it with. Once submitted, the model will appear in the Dashboard>Group Dashboard of the selected group members.


This is different from sharing individual or entire Dashboard models/reports, which allows any user who may or may not be users of MAF Cloud to access the individual model/entire dashboard via the shared web link (link will expire in 8 hours). In Group Dashboard, only group members can access the shared models/reports.

Group Rows

You may also group the rows (liken to the pivot table function in Microsoft Excel) to view the grouped data by dragging any column headers into the “row groups” section as highlighted:

The data in the table will be grouped according to your setting and you may drag multiple column headers into the “row groups” section to group them as necessary.
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Select the start and end date for the period of analysis.


The product used for analysis is "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Daily (Not Seasonally Adjusted)" from FRED (Code: T10Y3M). It cannot be changed by the user.


The inserted comments will be displayed at the bottom of the application. This can be useful for documentation purposes or for settings description.