当这个问题提出后，很多投资者第一反应是他们的表现是反向关系。但这是事实吗？债券价格上涨时股市是否真的下跌？或者债券价格下跌时股市是否真的上涨？
在观察这两种市场之间的短期关系时，股票价格和债券价格之间确实存在着相反的关系。然而，在考虑长期关系时，它可能被证明是一个不同的逻辑。
为了证明这点，我们通过使用迈云提供的互相关 模型，我们将过去20年里美国道琼斯指数E-Mini期货价格与CBOT美国30年期国债的期货价格走势进行分析。
As evident from the graph, both securities actually prove to have a historically high positive correlation (r=72.84%) with each other.
Indeed, the two often move in opposite directions in the short run, especially seen in the crisis years 2008-2010. During times of uncertainty, stock prices will fall significantly, as investors seek safety in T-bonds, hence driving its price up. In general, stocks are much more sensitive to market cycles than bonds. Bond yield is often considered an indicator of investors' confidence: during bull markets, prices of T-bonds will fall instead, as investors take on more risk and look for higher-return investments in stocks, causing it to outperform bonds.
However, as the two assets are affected by common market trends, they tend to move in the same direction in the long run. A lower bond yield would attract investors to invest in stocks that provide higher percentage returns. This is particularly evident when an economy is just recovering from a recession – both stock and bond prices move up in tandem, as interest rates are low and economic growth is expected to pick up. As the Fed is easing monetary policy recently to boost the economy, such a positive correlation is likely to be seen in recent times as well.
As investors, the prediction of future trends of bond and stock prices is essential. If bond yield continues to decline, the current upward trend of stocks could persist. However, could there be a limit to how low bond yields go? By using the Time Series Model available in MAF Cloud and basing it on FRED’s 30-Year Treasury Rates, we would be able to see the trend in bond yields in the past 10 years.
Looking at the graph, bond yields indeed seem to be in a downward trend. In the span of less than a year, yields have dropped from 3.46% to 2.11% (as of 12/09/2019). Does this mean that the FRED’s Treasury rates could potentially drop further? If it does, how high can stock prices go?
Several recent trends seem to be pushing yields even lower, such as ECB’s announcement on Thursday to resume quantitative easing and sustained asset purchases by the Fed, which can potentially push yields into negative territory. If we expect a positive correlation between stock and bond prices, we can expect a rallying of the stock market together with the bond prices in the future.
However, an important question investors may ask is: Is such a policy of lowering interest rates sustainable? Can the US T-bond yield turn negative and stay that way? It is not impossible, considering this is already the case for German bonds and shorter-term T-bills. Furthermore, the Fed’s plan to introduce 50- and 100-year bonds will expand the bank’s policy tools, providing further room to push down the yield curve in order to support an expansionary monetary policy.
Given the current situation:
What should investor’s expectation of future yields (and hence stock prices) be? Would monetary expansion continue or eventually reverse?
Is the current upward trend in stock prices driven by lowering yields or improving market sentiment? Are we entering a bull market, or would there be a correction if policy intervention ends?
Are current stock prices expensive or cheap? In next week’s article, we would be analysing this question using the Spread Analysis Model. So stay tuned!
如何在迈云上生成此图表：
对于互相关 模型，将开始日期设置为1989-09-12，将结束日期设置为当前日期。选择“Dow Indu 30 E-Mini”和“T-Bond”作为2种产品进行分析（两种合约为连续性，序列号= 1，选择第一近月合约）。选择两个合约的单位为“默认”。“反向绘制”和“领先指标”可以保持为“禁止”。
对于Time Series Model 模型，将开始日期设置为2009-09-12，将结束日期设置为当前日期。选择“30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Daily (Not Seasonally Adjusted)”作为产品。选择产品的单位为“默认”。
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